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Welcome to the North Atlantic Ocean Tropical Cyclone page of Hurricane Alley.

     Hurricane Alley strives to provide the most unique collection of information concerning the tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin anywhere. As such the following special notes should be taken ....

  • The "cone of uncertainty" is not the same as that provided by the National Hurricane Center. We calculate the area of the cone based upon the error rates of the official NHC advisories at the various forecast hours. Therefore, our cone dimensions fluctuate with the error rate of the current storm's history, not the pre-set based upon last season's forecasts.

  • The expected wind effects on the individual locations is based upon our own developed algorithm of wind field size, rate and direction of movement, and friction-induced reduction over land.

Current Activity -  

Forecast History Comparison

Hurricane Alley NHC
Forecast Track Forecast Track
Forecast Track History Forecast Track History
Computer Model Output Computer Model Output
  Spaghetti Plot
  Global Dynamical Models Plot
  Statistical Models Plot
  Ensemble / Consensus Models Plot
Intermediate Advisory Location GFS Ensemble Members
HAFT Model Plot Regional Models Plot
MISCELLANEOUS MISCELLANEOUS
Storm Discussion  
Forecast Wind Swath Forecast Track SST's
Model Performance Watches / Warnings
48 hr Precipitation Vortex Data Messages Plot
Cone of Uncertainty Cone of Uncertainty
Location Wind Impacts Model Forecast Histories
MOBILE , AL
PASCAGOULA , MS
PENSACOLA , FL
GFDL
HWRF
GFS
ECMWF
NGPS
UKM
  SATELLITE
   

Season to Date Invest Tracks


FAQ--

  • The North Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone basin is considered to be that area north of 0o between 0o west and the North American and Central American east coasts. 

  • The "season"  extends from June through November, although there have been tropical cyclones recorded in every month.

  • The area of the Atlantic basin observing the maximum number of hurricanes is near 29.0N, 75.5W, approximately 325 miles east of the central Florida east coast.

  • The median start date for the "season" is June 30, the median end date is October 30.

  • Since 1871 there have been 411 "tropical cyclone coastline crossings" between Maine and Texas. This number includes multiple landfalls for single storms.

  • Since 1871 there have been 193 category 1 through 5 "hurricane coastline crossings" from Maine to Texas. This number includes multiple landfalls for single storms.

  • Since 1871 there have been 52 category 3 through 5 "major hurricane coastline crossings" from Maine to Texas. This number includes multiple landfalls for single storms.


Current Tropical Information 
This includes all data related to the current conditions in the tropical North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. This includes surface observations, radar, buoy data, ship reports, satellite, and National Hurricane Center forecasts and plans.

Climatology
The frequency tables include the years 1851 - 2008. They are shown by year / by month.

Hurricane Forecast Models Explanations
The various computer models used to produce the forecast track of hurricanes and tropical storms are explained.

 

 

 

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